Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.