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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.