Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
